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Jerusalem Quake

26 - 36 AD

by Jefferson Williams









Events B and C in Nahal Ze 'elim - Williams et. al. (2012)
Events B (Josephus Quake) and C (Jerusalem Quake) in Nahal Ze 'elim. from Williams et. al. (2011)

Introduction & Summary

Jerusalem Quake Summary

Textual Evidence

Text (with hotlink) Original Language Religion Date of Composition Location Composed Notes
Canonical Gospel Accounts - Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John Greek Christian ~60 - ~110 CE Various In an allegorical passage, the Gospel of Matthew recounts an Earthquake in the moments after Jesus' death on the cross and again ~36 hours later just before the discovery of the empty tomb at Golgotha. None of the other canonical Gospel accounts mention these earthquakes. Matthew, Mark, and Luke describe a tearing of the curtain of the Second Temple in the moments after Jesus' death.
Gospel of the Hebrews Hebrew, possibly Aramaic Jewish Christian Reputed to have been written between ~33 CE and ~40 CE. This Gospel has been lost but parts of it were quoted by later authors - primarily Jerome. Quotations supplied by Jerome came from a copy he accessed in 398 CE. Jerusalem The apocryphal Gospel of the Hebrews accessed by Jerome states that the lintel of the Second Temple broke in the moments after Jesus' death implying that this was caused by seismic activity. A lintel break due to seismic activity could explain the tearing of the curtain of the Second Temple reported in the canonical Gospels of Matthew, Mark, and Luke. Lintel damage is a frequent seismic effect as the lintel is one of the weakest parts of a structure.
Nature of the Canonical Gospel Accounts The earliest possible date for the composition of the canonical Gospels appears to be after the 50s CE.
Acts of the Apostles Greek Christian ~62 - ~110 CE Rome ? The canonical Acts of the Apostles mentions a small seismic shock (possibly an aftershock) perhaps ~8 weeks after Jesus' death. The Acts of the Apostles is apparently beset with chronological inconsistencies.
The Doors of Hekal The Babylonian Talmud, Josephus, and Tacitus relate that the Doors of Hekal of the Second Temple would spontaneously open due to supernatural forces. Spontaneous door opening could be due to prior seismic damage. The date for the spontaneous door opening is not well established. Perhaps it was in the 30s CE. Josephus also describes what could be another potential aftershock.
The Chamber of Hewn Stones Hebrew, Aramaic The Babylonian Talmud describes how the Sanhedrin was exiled from the Chamber of Hewn Stones around ~30 CE which it attributes to the fact that they no longer had the authority to judge cases of fines and/or cases of capital punishment. Some have speculated that the reason for the exile is that the Chamber had been seismically damaged and made structurally unsound.
Temple Repair reported in The Jewish War by Josephus Greek, possibly translated from an earlier version in Aramaic Jewish about 75 CE Rome Josephus relates that between 41 and 44 CE, timbers were brought to the Second Temple for the purposes of construction or possibly reconstruction.
Year of Jesus’ Death The year of Jesus' death is not specified anywhere in the New Testament however chronological clues in the canonical Gospel Accounts along with an analysis using methods of Historical Astronomy indicates that 33 and 30 CE are the most likely years. The full time span for when Jesus died is constrained from 26 to 36 or 37 CE.
Intensity of Shaking in Jerusalem Second Temple damage suggests an Intensity of VI or VII.
Conflation with an earthquake in Northern Turkey Some ancient authors conflated the report of an earthquake in the moments after Jesus' death with the Solar Eclipse Quake of 29 CE in what is now northwestern Turkey. Due to the distances between northwestern Turkey and Jerusalem and other reasons, this is not possible.
Gospel of Peter Greek Christian Scholars are divided as to the exact date of the text. Ehrman and Pleše (2011) place it in the middle of the 2nd century CE. The apocryphal Gospel of Peter recounts an Earthquake in the moments after Jesus' death as well as the tearing of the curtain of the Second Temple.
Gospel of Nicodemus also known as The Acts of Pilate Greek although questions of original language are debated Christian 4th or 5th century CE The apocryphal Gospel of Nicodemus describes an earthquake and tearing of the curtain of the Second Temple in the moments before Jesus' death as well as a second earthquake associated with the discovery of the empty tomb. This Gospel also presents an interesting backstory which could provide a literary reason why an earthquake was included in some versions (e.g., Matthew) of the Passion narrative (see Biography drop down to the left for details).
Literary Motif - An earthquake after the death of a a famous person An earthquake is also reported after the deaths of Buddha, Mohammed, and Julius Caesar
Text (with hotlink) Original Language Religion Date of Composition Location Composed Notes
Canonical Gospel Accounts - Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John

Gospel of the Hebrews

Nature of the Canonical Gospel Accounts

Aftershock in the Acts of the Apostles

The Doors of Hekal and another potential aftershock

The Chamber of Hewn Stones

Temple Repair reported in The Jewish War by Josephus

Year of Jesus’ Death

Intensity of Shaking in Jerusalem

Conflation with an earthquake in Northern Turkey

Gospel of Peter

Gospel of Nicodemus also known as The Acts of Pilate

Literary Motif - An earthquake after the death of a a famous person

Archaeoseismic Evidence

Location (with hotlink) Status Intensity Notes
Jerusalem - Introduction n/a n/a n/a
Jerusalem - Western Wall Tunnel probable ≥ 7 Stratum 14 Earthquake - ~30 CE - Onn et. al. (2011) report earthquake damage to a pier under Wilson's Arch adjacent to the Western Wall Plaza by Temple Mount which they presumed to be due to an earthquake in 33 CE. The date was constrained by the endpoints of the approximate completion of the Herodian Temple rebuilding project and the destruction of the Second Temple by then Roman General Titus in 70 CE. Although the 70 CE endpoint is known with certainty, the end of the Herodian rebuilding project is not as certain but the bulk of the building was probably completed by ~27 CE.

Regev et al (2020) performed radiocarbon dating and microarcheology on northern and southern piers under Wilson's Arch and reported radiocarbon dates of 20 BC - 20 CE for the northern pier and drainage channel and 30 - 60 CE for the southern pier (Regev et al, 2020: 9, 13). This would associate the northern pier with the original Herodian rebuilding project and the southern pier with a southerly expansion of the Bridge associated with Wilson's Arch initiated sometime after ~20-30 CE. Given the earthquake damage present under this bridge, this bridge expansion suggests it was also a repair. Repairs can be indicators of a reaction to seismic damage. Thus it seems probable but not certain that the Jerusalem Quake (31 CE ± 5) caused this seismic bridge damage.
Jerusalem - Jason’s Tomb possible ≥ 8 Rahmani(1964:98-99) interpreted the collapse of “structured parts” of Jason’s Tomb in Jerusalem to be due to the 31 BCE earthquake. He noted the presence of Herodian remains (mainly oil lamps) on a plaster floor beneath earthquake debris. Since Herod conquered Jerusalem in 37 BCE and Rahmani (1964) dates sealing of the tomb to 30/31 CE, it was presumed that the responsible earthquake was the only one that Rahmani (1964) was aware of at that time – the Josephus Quake of 31 BCE. However, since then evidence for the Jerusalem Quake of 26-36 CE has come to light making the Jerusalem Quake another possible candidate for the collapse debris. If the Jerusalem Quake did cause archeoseismic damage to Jason’s Tomb, it may have added additional debris rather than being responsible for the original debris.
Jerusalem - The Cracks of Calvary indeterminate In his catalog entry for the 33 CE Earthquake (i.e., the Jerusalem Quake), Ambraseys (2009) presents a discussion of the so-called cracks of Calvary at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem. Although there are legends stating that these cracks were formed during the earthquake(s) of the Crucifixion, no-one to date has been able to either date the formation of the cracks or confirm or dis-affirm a seismic origin. So, while the discussion is interesting, it is not illuminating.
Heshbon possible ≥ 8
Stratum 14 Earthquake (Mitchel, 1980) - 1st century BCE - 2nd century CE

Mitchel (1980) identified a destruction layer in Stratum 14 which he attributed to an earthquake. Unfortunately, the destruction layer is not precisely dated. Using some assumptions, Mitchel (1980) dated the earthquake destruction to the 130 CE Eusebius Mystery Quake, apparently unaware at the time that this earthquake account may be either misdated as suggested by Russell (1985) or mislocated as suggested by Ambraseys (2009). Although Russell (1985) attributed the destruction layer in Stratum 14 to the early 2nd century CE Incense Road Quake, a number of earthquakes are possible candidates including the 31 BCE Josephus Quake.

Mitchel (1980:73) reports that a majority of caves used for dwelling collapsed at the top of Stratum 14 which could be noticed by:

bedrock surface channels, presumably for directing run-off water into storage facilities, which now are totally disrupted, and in many cases rest ten to twenty degrees from the horizontal; by caves with carefully cut steps leading down into them whose entrances are fully or largely collapsed and no longer usable; by passages from caves which can still be entered into formerly communicating caves which no longer exist, or are so low-ceilinged or clogged with debris as to make their use highly unlikely — at least as they stand now.
Mitchel (1980:73) also noticed that new buildings constructed in Stratum 13 were leveled over a jumble of broken-up bedrock. Mitchel (1980:95) reports that Areas B and D had the best evidence for the massive bedrock collapse - something he attributed to the "softer" strata in this area, more prone to karst features and thus easier to burrow into and develop underground dwelling structures. Mitchel (1980:96) reports discovery of a coin of Aretas IV (9 BC – 40 CE) in the fill of silo D.3:57 which he suggests was placed as part of reconstruction after the earthquake. Although Mitchel (1980:96) acknowledges that this suggests that the causitive earthquake was the 31 BCE Josephus Quake, Mitchel (1980:96) argued for a later earthquake based on the mistaken belief that the 31 BCE Josephus Quake had an epicenter in the Galilee. Paleoseismic evidence from the Dead Sea, however, indicates that the 31 BCE Josephus Quake had an epicenter in the vicinity of the Dead Sea relatively close to Tell Hesban. Mitchel (1980:96-98)'s argument follows:
The filling of the silos, caves, and other broken—up bedrock installations at the end of the Early Roman period was apparently carried out nearly immediately after the earthquake occurred. This conclusion is based on the absence of evidence for extended exposure before filling (silt, water—laid deposits, etc.), which in fact suggests that maybe not even one winter's rain can be accounted for between the earthquake and the Stratum 13 filling operation. If this conclusion is correct, then the Aretas IV coin had to have been introduced into silo D.3:57 fill soon after the earthquake. which consequently could not have been earlier than 9 B.C.

The nature of the pottery preserved on the soft, deep fills overlying collapsed bedrock is also of significant importance to my argument in favor of the A.D. 130 earthquake as responsible for the final demise of underground (bedrock) installations in Areas B and D. Table 7 provides a systematic presentation of what I consider to be the critical ceramic evidence from loci in three adjacent squares, D.3, D.4, and B.7. The dates of the latest pottery uniformly carry us well beyond the date of the earthquake which damaged Qumran, down, in fact, closer to the end of the 1st century A.D. or the beginning of the 2nd.

In addition to these three fill loci, soil layer D.4:118A (inside collapsed cave D.4:116 + D.4:118) yielded Early Roman I-III sherds, as well as two Late Roman I sherds (Square D.4 pottery pails 265, 266). Contamination of these latter samples is possible, but not likely. I dug the locus myself.

Obviously, this post-31 B.C. pottery could have been deposited much later than 31 B.C.. closer, say, to the early 2nd century A.D., but the evidence seems to be against such a view. I personally excavated much of locus D.4:101 (Stratum 13). It was a relatively homogeneous, unstratified fill of loose soil that gave all the appearances of rapid deposition in one operation. From field descriptions of the apparently parallel loci in Squares D.3 and B.7. I would judge them to be roughly equivalent and subject to the same interpretation and date. And I repeat, the evidence for extended exposure to the elements (and a concomitant slow, stratified deposition) was either missed in excavation, not properly recorded, or did not exist.

This case is surely not incontrovertible but seems to me to carry the weight of the evidence which was excavated at Tell Hesban.
Mitchel (1980:100)'s 130 CE date for the causitive earthquake rests on the assumption that the "fills" were deposited soon after bedrock collapse. If one discards this assumption, numismatic evidence and ceramic evidence suggests that the "fill" was deposited over a longer period of time - perhaps even 200+ years - and the causitive earthquake was earlier. Unfortunately, it appears that the terminus ante quem for the bedrock collapse event is not well constrained. The terminus post quem appears to depend on the date for lower levels of Stratum 14 which seems to have been difficult to date precisely and underlying Stratum 15 which Mitchel (1980:21) characterized as chronologically difficult.

Structures in the Araba n/a n/a Ben-Menahem (1979:259) and Ben-Menahem (1991:20198) report that three structures in the Araba were fortified to withstand earthquakes between the years 9 BCE and 50 CE. This could reflect indirect evidence of a recent earthquake; primarily due to a Nabatean pattern of quickly repairing structures after earthquakes during this prosperous period. He locates these structures in Petra, Tel el Haliefe, and Wadi Ramm. His references were Avi-Yonah (1975) Volumes III and IV and Gleuck (1943).
Petra - Introduction n/a n/a n/a
Petra - Temple of the High Places needs investigation Ben-Menahem (1979:259) and Ben-Menahem (1991:20198) report that three structures in the Araba were fortified to withstand earthquakes between the years 9 BCE and 50 CE. This could reflect indirect evidence of a recent earthquake; primarily due to a Nabatean pattern of quickly repairing structures after earthquakes during this prosperous period. He locates these structures in Petra, Tel el Haliefe, and Wadi Ramm. His references were Avi-Yonah (1975) Vol III and IV and Gleuck (1943).

Unfortunately, Ben-Menahem (1979:259) and Ben-Menahem (1991:20198) did not specify which structure at Petra was fortified. He may have been referring to the “Temple of the High Places” but absent specific information, it is not possible to assess this claim. Although there is potential archeoseismic evidence at the site (i.e. fractures in the steps and platform), the potential evidence is undated.
Aqaba - Introduction n/a n/a n/a
Aqaba - Tel el Haliefe no evidence Ben-Menahem (1979:259) and Ben-Menahem (1991:20198) report that three structures in the Araba were fortified to withstand earthquakes between the years 9 BCE and 50 CE. This could reflect indirect evidence of a recent earthquake; primarily due to a Nabatean pattern of quickly repairing structures after earthquakes during this prosperous period. He locates these structures in Petra, Tel el Haliefe, and Wadi Ramm. His references were Avi-Yonah (1975) Vol III and IV and Gleuck (1943).

Tel el Haliefe site does not appear to contain any evidence for fortification of structures between 9 BCE and 50 CE. Pratico and DiVito (1993), Avi-Yonah (1975), and Glueck (1940) all state that the site appears to have been abandoned by 4th or 3rd century BCE at the latest.
Wadi Ramm - Er-Ram possible They key seismic discovery at the Temple to Allat is a Thamudic inscription discovered at the ruins on the site. The inscription may have been placed after the site was rebuilt due to earthquake damage. This may reflect be a pattern during this time when the Nabateans rebuilt their temples (e.g., The High Places at Petra, Khirbet Tannur, and the Temple to Allat in Wadi Ramm) soon after earthquakes damaged them. The inscription contains a fragment of a date: and this is written on the day/ . . . of Ab in the year 40 and . . . ,. ' Two alternatives were proposed for dating this inscription (Avi-Yonah, 1975)
  1. The inscription refers to the 41st or 45th year in the reign of Aretas IV; the only Nabatean King who ruled for more than 40 years (he ruled for 49 years - from 9 BCE – 40 CE). This would place the date of the inscription in ~32 or ~36 CE. If all the years between his 41st and 49th regnal years are considered, the inscription would date from ~32 – ~40 CE. No explicit reason was given why only the 41st and 45th years were considered.

  2. The date specifies the era of the Provincia Arabia which would date the inscription as follows:
    Year of Province Arabia Date Range Comments
    41 22 March 146 to 21 March 147 CE Calculated using CHRONOS
    45 22 March 150 to 21 March 151 CE Calculated using CHRONOS
    Again, no explicit reason was given why only the 41st and 45th years were considered. The full date range for the 41st to 49th years of Provincia Arabia is from 22 March 146 to 21 March 155 CE.
Because the excavators found no mention of Aretas IV’s surname (Philopatris) in the inscription, they favored the second date (Avi-Yonah, 1975).
Herodium possible ≥ 8 Mid-1st century CE Earthquake (?) - Netzer (1981:78) proposed that the damage observed in the service building at Lower Herodium was probably due to an earthquake which occurred in the mid-first century A.D. This assessment was based on structural evidence such as the collapse of the barrel-vaulted ceiling in the storage hall—an event that destroyed dozens of storage jars—and the collapse of arches in Hall B41. However, Netzer (1981:27–28) cautioned that such a conclusion must be viewed with caution, as there is no definite evidence of such an earthquake from the other parts of the site. Numismatic finds, including coins of Agrippa I [r. 41-44 CE] and others discovered on the floors of the reconstructed building and in associated dumps, point to a date towards the middle of the first century A.D. (Netzer, 1981:27–28). Although Netzer (1981:27–28) tentatively linked the damage to the year 48 CE based on an entry in the earthquake catalog of Amiran et al. (1994), this specific date is considered unreliable. Supporting this general timeframe, Ahipaz et al. (2017:126) interpreted numismatic evidence from Herodium as indicating site abandonment during the 40s or 50s CE, which they speculated may have resulted from an earthquake.
Location (with hotlink) Status Intensity Notes
Jerusalem - Introduction



Jerusalem - Western Wall Tunnel



Jerusalem - Jason’s Tomb



Jerusalem - The Cracks of Calvary



Heshbon



Petra - Introduction



Petra - Temple of the High Places



Aqaba/Eilat - Introduction



Aqaba - Tel el Haliefe



Wadi Ramm - Er-Ram



Herodium



Paleoseismic Evidence

Location (with hotlink) Status Intensity Notes
Bet Zayda unlikely ≥ 7 Although Wechsler at al. (2014) list the Jerusalem Quake as a candidate for causing surface rupture seen in event CH4-E6 (Modeled Age 392 BCE - 91 CE) in Bet Zayda, the estimated size and epicenter worked out by Williams (2004) suggests that it is an unlikely candidate and that their more favored candidate (the 31 BCE Josephus Quake) or the Northern Dead Fish and Soldiers Quake are more likely.
Dead Sea - Seismite Types n/a n/a
Dead Sea - En Feshka possible to probable 7.9 - 8.8 Kagan et. al. (2011) identified a 1 cm. thick Type 4 microbreccia seismite at a depth of 338 cm. which they dated to 63 CE ± 38 (1σ) and 61 CE ± 81 (2σ). They listed the 33 CE earthquake (i.e., the Jerusalem Quake) as the most likely candidate.
Dead Sea - En Gedi possible 8 - 9 Migowski et. al. (2004) identified a 0.2 cm. thick Type 1 seismite at a depth of 274 cm. (2.74 m) in the DSEn core taken at En Gedi and assigned it a date of 33 CE based on varve counting in the core. Williams et. al. (2012) later worked on the same core that Migowski et. al. (2004) worked on and dated the same seismite to 26-36 CE using an identical varve counting technique but added an uncertainty estimate for the difficult to count varves.

Although Migowski et. al. (2004) and Williams et. al. (2012) observed a very thin seismite (0.2 cm.) associated with the Jerusalem Quake in the En Gedi Core, subsequent field work by Williams in a gully (aka the En Gedi Trench) located ~40 meters from the core site has shown the Jerusalem Quake seismite to be substantially thicker (3 – 9 cm. with an average of 3-4 cm.) and Type 2. Thickening and thinning of seismites are frequently observed in outcrop and the thickness may be controlled by site effects, lithological changes, and subtle changes in topography (terracing) that cause the seismite layers to flow during earthquakes of longer duration.

Migowski et. al. (2004) assigned a magnitude of 5.5 to the Jerusalem Quake seismite apparently based on the work of Ken-Tor et al. (2001a) which estimated a magnitude of 5.5 for the the seismite they assigned to the Jerusalem Quake (33 AD in their paper) in Nahal Ze'elim. This was based on an assumption by Ken-Tor et al. (2001a) that the Jerusalem Quake only produced a seismite locally at Nahal Ze 'elim (ZA1) and that an earthquake must be at least magnitude 5.5 to produce a seismite in the epicentral region. However, since seismites were observed at two locations (En Gedi and Nahal Ze 'elim), the magnitude had to be larger. Williams (2004) estimated the magnitude of the Jerusalem Quake to between 6.0 and 6.5 (~6.3) with an epicenter close the Jordanian town of Al Masraa. The methodology of Williams (2004) was to estimate local intensity based on seismite thickness, locate the causitive earthquake on known earthquake producing faults (in this case the Araba Fault), and use an attenuation relationship to estimate Magnitude.
Dead Sea - Nahal Ze 'elim probable 8.0 - 8.9 (All sites)
  • Annotated Photo of Events B (31 BCE) and C (26-36 CE) near site ZA-1 from Williams et al (2011)
  • Annotated Photo of Events B (31 BCE) and C (26-36 CE) near site ZA-1 from photo by Jefferson Williams
Site ZA-1 - Ken-Tor et al. (2001a) was the first to discover and publish about this seismite. She identified a 5.5 cm. thick Type 4 seismite which she labeled as Event C. This seismite was dated to 124 CE ± 188 (± 2σ) and its most probable age was estimated at 5-50 CE - apparently based on its stratigraphic position relative to what was presumed to be a 31 BCE Josephus Quake Seismite (Event B). Ken-Tor et al. (2001a) associated Event C with a 33 CE earthquake listed in the earthquake catalogs (i.e. the Jerusalem Quake). She assigned a magnitude of 5.5 which is thought to be the minimum magnitude necessary to create a seismite in the epicentral region. Williams (2004) examined the same seismite (Event C) as Ken-Tor et. al. (2001a) but revised the magnitude estimate up to ~6.3 by placing the earthquake on known faults and estimating the strength of shaking required to create a seismite of the observed thickness in Nahal Ze ‘elim (~ 4 - 5 cm.). The most likely fault break according to Williams (2004) was the northern part of the Araba Fault with an epicenter close to the Jordanian town of Al Masraa. Ken-Tor (nee Bookman) related that Event C was observed to thicken and thin throughout the outcrop occasionally pinching out and disappearing (personal communication, 2000).

Site ZA-2 - Site ZA-2 is more seaward than site ZA-1. At site ZA-2, Kagan et al (2011) dated a 4 cm. thick Type 4 seismite at a depth of 470 cm. to 52 CE ± 40 (1σ) and 56 CE ± 76 (2σ) and associated it with the 33 CE earthquake - i.e., the Jerusalem Quake.
Araba - Introduction n/a n/a n/a
Araba - Taybeh Trench possible ≥ 7 LeFevre et al. (2018) tentatively identified a poorly expressed seismic event (E5) in the Taybeh trench in the Araba which they modeled between 14 BCE and 205 CE. Although they identified the 31 BCE Josephus Quake as the most likely candidate, the ~31 CE Jerusalem Quake may be an even more likely candidate. LeFevre et al. (2018) noted that the poor expression of Event E5 (vertical cracks in the trench) meant that the cracks could have been caused by a later Event (E4) which they associated with the early second century CE Incense Road Earthquake.
Araba - Qatar Trench possible to unlikely ≥ 7 The Jerusalem Quake, within Event E6's time window (251 CE ± 251), is a less likely candidate than other earthquake events such as the early second century CE Incense Road Earthquake or the southern Cyril Quake of 363 CE.
Location (with hotlink) Status Intensity Notes
Bet Zayda (aka Beteiha)

Although Wechsler at al. (2014) list the Jerusalem Quake as a candidate for causing surface rupture seen in event CH4-E6 (Modeled Age 392 BCE - 91 CE) in Bet Zayda, the estimated size and epicenter worked out by Williams (2004) suggests that it is an unlikely candidate and that their more favored candidate (the 31 BCE Josephus Quake) or the Northern Dead Fish and Soldiers Quake (listed as mid 2nd century in their figure below) are more likely.



Dead Sea - Seismite Types



Dead Sea - En Feshka

Kagan et. al. (2011) identified a 1 cm. thick Type 4 microbreccia seismite at a depth of 338 cm. which they dated to 63 CE ±38 (1σ) and 61 CE ± 81 (2σ). They listed the 33 CE earthquake (ie the Jerusalem Quake) as the most likely candidate.



Dead Sea - En Gedi

Migowski et. al. (2004) identified a 0.2 cm. thick Type 1 seismite at a depth of 274 cm. (2.74 m) in the DSEn core taken at En Gedi and assigned it a date of 33 CE based on varve counting in the core. Williams et. al. (2012) later worked on the same core that Migowski et. al. (2004) worked on and dated the same seismite to 26-36 CE using an identical varve counting technique but added an uncertainty estimate for the difficult to count varves.

Although Migowski et. al. (2004) and Williams et. al. (2012) observed a very thin seismite (0.2 cm.) associated with the Jerusalem Quake in the En Gedi Core, subsequent field work by Williams in a gully (aka the En Gedi Trench) located ~40 meters from the core site has shown the Jerusalem Quake seismite to be substantially thicker (3 – 9 cm. with an average of 3-4 cm.) and Type 2. Thickening and thinning of seismites are frequently observed in outcrop and the thickness may be controlled by site effects, lithological changes, and subtle changes in topography (terracing) that cause the seismite layers to flow during earthquakes of longer duration.

Migowski et. al. (2004) assigned a magnitude of 5.5 to the Jerusalem Quake seismite apparently based on the work of Ken-Tor et al. (2001a) which estimated a magnitude of 5.5 for the the seismite they assigned to the Jerusalem Quake (33 AD in their paper) in Nahal Ze'elim. This was based on an assumption by Ken-Tor et al. (2001a) that the Jerusalem Quake only produced a seismite locally at Nahal Ze 'elim (ZA1) and that an earthquake must be at least magnitude 5.5 to produce a seismite in the epicentral region. However, since seismites were observed at two locations (En Gedi and Nahal Ze 'elim), the magnitude had to be larger. Williams (2004) estimated the magnitude of the Jerusalem Quake to between 6.0 and 6.5 (~6.3) with an epicenter close the Jordanian town of Al Masraa. The methodology of Williams (2004) was to estimate local intensity based on seismite thickness, locate the causitive earthquake on known earthquake producing faults (in this case the Araba Fault), and use an attenuation relationship to estimate Magnitude.

The seismite at a depth of 274 cm.(2.74 m) can be observed in the table below: (source: Table 2)



Dead Sea - Nahal Ze 'elim

ZA-1
Ken-Tor et al. (2001a) was the first to discover and publish about this seismite. She identified a 5.5 cm. thick Type 4 seismite which she labeled as Event C. This seismite was dated to 124 CE ± 188 (± 2σ) and its most probable age was estimated at 5-50 CE - apparently based on its stratigraphic position relative to what was presumed to be a 31 BCE Josephus Quake Seismite (Event B). Ken-Tor et al. (2001a) associated Event C with a 33 CE earthquake listed in the earthquake catalogs (i.e. the Jerusalem Quake). She assigned a magnitude of 5.5 which is thought to be the minimum magnitude necessary to create a seismite in the epicentral region. Williams (2004) examined the same seismite (Event C) as Ken-Tor et. al. (2001a) but revised the magnitude estimate up to ~6.3 by placing the earthquake on known faults and estimating the strength of shaking required to create a seismite of the observed thickness in Nahal Ze ‘elim (~ 4 - 5 cm.). The most likely fault break according to Williams (2004) was the northern part of the Araba Fault with an epicenter close to the Jordanian town of Al Masraa. Ken-Tor (nee Bookman) related that Event C was observed to thicken and thin throughout the outcrop occasionally pinching out and disappearing (personal communication, 2000).
ZA-2
Site ZA-2 is more seaward than site ZA-1. At site ZA-2, Kagan et al (2011) dated a 4 cm. thick Type 4 seismite at a depth of 470 cm. to 52 CE ± 40 (1σ) and 56 CE ± 76 (2σ) and associated it with the 33 CE earthquake - i.e., the Jerusalem Quake.



Araba - Introduction



Araba - Taybeh Trench

LeFevre et al. (2018) tentatively identified a poorly expressed seismic event (E5) in the Taybeh trench in the Araba which they modeled between 14 BCE and 205 CE. Although they identified the 31 BCE Josephus Quake as the most likely candidate, the ~31 CE Jerusalem Quake may be an even more likely candidate. LeFevre et al. (2018) noted that the poor expression of Event E5 (vertical cracks in the trench) meant that the cracks could have been caused by a later Event (E4) which they associated with the early second century CE Incense Road Earthquake.



Araba - Qatar Trench

The Jerusalem Quake, within Event E6's time window (251 CE ± 251), is a less likely candidate than other earthquake events such as the early second century CE Incense Road Earthquake or the southern Cyril Quake of 363 CE.



Seismic Amplification

Topic (with hotlink) Notes
Seismic Amplification on Temple Mount Temple Mount has a probable site effect due to fill.
Site Effect due to Fill Site Effect due to fill is probable.
Topographic Effect A topographic effect is possible at the Dome of the Rock.
Wave guide Effect essentially the same as a topographic Effect
Slope Effect near the walls of Temple Mount Structures on the edge of Temple Mount may be subject to a slope effect - particularly Al Aqsa Mosque.
Seismic threat to structures Salamon et. al. (2010) report that the frequency range of seismic threat to structures lies in the 0.5 – 10 Hz. range.
Description of the Temple Josephus described the Second Temple.
Caveat A seismic model is required to take these speculations to the next level.
Topic (with hotlink) Notes
Seismic Amplification on Temple Mount

Structures on the Temple Mount appear to undergo frequent damage during earthquakes (Salamon et al, 2010). Although Salamon (personal communication 2013) cautions that It is not known if this frequent damage is due to an over reporting of damage or a local site effect, a site effect due to fill is probable for those parts of Temple Mount where the fill is thick. Other site effects (e.g. topographic, wave guide, and slope) may also be present on some parts of the Temple Mount. Since the location of the Second Temple on Temple Mount is a mystery, all possible site effects are discussed below.

Site Effect due to Fill

Uncompacted fill was laid down in the Tyropean Valley during Herodian times in order to create the Temple Mount Platform. The fill was thick in many sections; perhaps as thick as 19 meters Frydman (1997). Uncompacted fill has a low shear wave velocity and seismic amplification is known to occur when a low shear wave velocity layer lies on top of a higher velocity shear wave velocity layer(e.g. Dobry et al. 2000 and Kawase, 2003); in this case Judea Group limestone. Below is a hypothetical cross-section of Temple Mount showing the thickness of the fill.

Conjectural elevations of the Temple Platform (a) Herodian (b) Solomonic - Frydman (1997) after Kenyon, 1974


While Salamon et. al. (2010) exercise caution in declaring that there is a definitive site effect at Temple Mount, the thick low velocity fill, the seismic history of structures on Temple Mount, the higher than expected intensities experienced during the 1927 Jericho Quake ( Salamon et. al., 2010), and the Roof Collapse of Al Aqsa Mosque on Temple Mount during the 1927 Jericho Quake all suggest that a site effect is likely present on at least some parts of Temple Mount (many photos here)

Topographic Effect

If the Second Temple was located in approximately the same location as the modern Dome of the Rock, there would be less of an amplification effect due to uncompacted fill but there might be a ridge1 or topographic effect as the Dome of the Rock exposes the underlying bedrock and therefore lies on more rock and less fill. Because Temple Mount is centered on a ridge , certain frequencies of seismic energy can be trapped and amplified if they engage in constructive interference as they propagate upwards towards the ridge. This is a frequency dependent phenomenon where maximum resonance occurs when the seismic wavelength matches the length of a ridge. Polarization or orientation of the shear waves is also a factor.

Footnotes

1 The Hill or Ridge Temple Mount straddles is alternatively referred to as Mount Moriah or Mount Zion based on traditional beliefs about the Ridge’s association with early biblical stories.

Wave guide Effect

The Temple Mount structure might itself act as a wave guide. If the wavelength of a seismic wave is approximately equal to the width or length of a structure such as the Temple Mount, constructive interference during propagation can lead to a resonance condition where the wave is effectively amplified. Given that the Temple Mount Platform measures 480 m x 280 m (Salamon et al, 2010), the question to be asked is under what conditions will one encounter a seismic wave with a wavelength of 480 m. Salamon et al (2010) report that the Judea Mountain Group (limestone) at the base of most hills in Jerusalem and has a shear wave velocity (VS) ranging from 1100-2300 m/s. Some simple calculations follow :

f = VS

where
f = frequency (Hz.)
VS = Shear Wave Velocity (m/s)
λ = Wavelength (m)
Sample calculations for a wavelength (λ) of ~480 m follow :

VS (m/s) λ (m) f (Hz)
1100 480 2.3
1450 480 3.0
2300 480 4.8


If most decayed seismic energy in Israel is below 3 Hz. (Avi Shapira, personal communication 2004), the shear wave velocity would need to be less than 1450 m/s to resonate with seismic energy of 3 Hz.. This is on the low end of the shear wave velocity range for the Judea Mountain Group (VS = 1100 - 2300 m/s - Salamon et al, 2010: Table 2). A wave guide effect is possible through the Temple Mount Platform for seismic frequencies in a range of 2.3 – 3.0 Hz. provided that the underlying limestone has a shear wave velocity below 1450 m/s. A topographic effect would be similar to a wave-guide effect.
Calculator and Plot

Calculator

for Wavelength of 480 m
Variable Input Units Notes
m/s Shear Wave Velocity
Variable Output Units Notes
Hz. Frequency
  

Plot

  


Slope Effect near the walls of Temple Mount

Salamon et. al. (2010) noted that seismic amplification could occur on slopes greater than 60 degrees where the slope height is roughly equal to one fifth of a seismic wavelength. Turning this relationship around, the frequency at which this effect will occur is defined as follows :

f = VS/(5*H)

where
f = frequency (Hz.)
VS = Shear Wave Velocity (m/s)
H = slope height in meters
Sample calculations for a 100 m slope height follow :

VS (m/s) H (m) f (Hz)
1100 100 2.2
1500 100 3.0
2300 100 4.6


Practically speaking, under the conditions of the Judean Group formations (VS = 1100 - 2300 m/s - Salamon et al, 2010: Table 2) and decayed seismic energy below 3 Hz., the slope height must be greater than 100 meters. Frequencies go even higher for smaller slope heights. 100 meter high slope heights are only found on the east and southeast side of Temple Mount so this is the only part of the structure where we might find an added frequency dependent slope amplification effect provided the limestone shear wave velocity is less than 1500 m/s.
Calculator and Plot

Calculator

Slope Effect Calculator
Variable Input Units Notes
m/s Shear Wave Velocity
m Slope Height
Variable Output Units Notes
Hz. Frequency
  

Plot

  


Seismic threat to structures

Salamon et. al. (2010) report that the frequency range of seismic threat to structures lies in the 0.5 – 10 Hz. range. For the relatively short structures thought to have been placed on the Temple Mount, the greater seismic threat is at the lower end of that frequency range.

Description of the Temple

Josephus, a contemporary eyewitness to the second Temple, describes it in The Jewish War Book 5 Chapter 5.

The Jewish War Book 5 Chapter 5

CHAPTER 5.

A DESCRIPTION OF THE TEMPLE.

1. NOW this temple, as I have already said, was built upon a strong hill. At first the plain at the top was hardly sufficient for the holy house and the altar, for the ground about it was very uneven, and like a precipice; but when king Solomon, who was the person that built the temple, had built a wall to it on its east side, there was then added one cloister founded on a bank cast up for it, and on the other parts the holy house stood naked. But in future ages the people added new banks,12 and the hill became a larger plain. They then broke down the wall on the north side, and took in as much as sufficed afterward for the compass of the entire temple. And when they had built walls on three sides of the temple round about, from the bottom of the hill, and had performed a work that was greater than could be hoped for, (in which work long ages were spent by them, as well as all their sacred treasures were exhausted, which were still replenished by those tributes which were sent to God from the whole habitable earth,) they then encompassed their upper courts with cloisters, as well as they [afterward] did the lowest [court of the] temple. The lowest part of this was erected to the height of three hundred cubits, and in some places more; yet did not the entire depth of the foundations appear, for they brought earth, and filled up the valleys, as being desirous to make them on a level with the narrow streets of the city; wherein they made use of stones of forty cubits in magnitude; for the great plenty of money they then had, and the liberality of the people, made this attempt of theirs to succeed to an incredible degree; and what could not be so much as hoped for as ever to be accomplished, was, by perseverance and length of time, brought to perfection.

2. Now for the works that were above these foundations, these were not unworthy of such foundations; for all the cloisters were double, and the pillars to them belonging were twenty-five cubits in height, and supported the cloisters. These pillars were of one entire stone each of them, and that stone was white marble; and the roofs were adorned with cedar, curiously graven. The natural magnificence, and excellent polish, and the harmony of the joints in these cloisters, afforded a prospect that was very remarkable; nor was it on the outside adorned with any work of the painter or engraver. The cloisters [of the outmost court] were in breadth thirty cubits, while the entire compass of it was by measure six furlongs, including the tower of Antonia; those entire courts that were exposed to the air were laid with stones of all sorts. When you go through these [first] cloisters, unto the second [court of the] temple, there was a partition made of stone all round, whose height was three cubits: its construction was very elegant; upon it stood pillars, at equal distances from one another, declaring the law of purity, some in Greek, and some in Roman letters, that "no foreigner should go within that sanctuary" for that second [court of the] temple was called "the Sanctuary," and was ascended to by fourteen steps from the first court. This court was four-square, and had a wall about it peculiar to itself; the height of its buildings, although it were on the outside forty cubits,13 was hidden by the steps, and on the inside that height was but twenty-five cubits; for it being built over against a higher part of the hill with steps, it was no further to be entirely discerned within, being covered by the hill itself. Beyond these thirteen steps there was the distance of ten cubits; this was all plain; whence there were other steps, each of five cubits a-piece, that led to the gates, which gates on the north and south sides were eight, on each of those sides four, and of necessity two on the east. For since there was a partition built for the women on that side, as the proper place wherein they were to worship, there was a necessity for a second gate for them: this gate was cut out of its wall, over against the first gate. There was also on the other sides one southern and one northern gate, through which was a passage into the court of the women; for as to the other gates, the women were not allowed to pass through them; nor when they went through their own gate could they go beyond their own wall. This place was allotted to the women of our own country, and of other countries, provided they were of the same nation, and that equally. The western part of this court had no gate at all, but the wall was built entire on that side. But then the cloisters which were betwixt the gates extended from the wall inward, before the chambers; for they were supported by very fine and large pillars. These cloisters were single, and, excepting their magnitude, were no way inferior to those of the lower court.

3. Now nine of these gates were on every side covered over with gold and silver, as were the jambs of their doors and their lintels; but there was one gate that was without the [inward court of the] holy house, which was of Corinthian brass, and greatly excelled those that were only covered over with silver and gold. Each gate had two doors, whose height was severally thirty cubits, and their breadth fifteen. However, they had large spaces within of thirty cubits, and had on each side rooms, and those, both in breadth and in length, built like towers, and their height was above forty cubits. Two pillars did also support these rooms, and were in circumference twelve cubits. Now the magnitudes of the other gates were equal one to another; but that over the Corinthian gate, which opened on the east over against the gate of the holy house itself, was much larger; for its height was fifty cubits; and its doors were forty cubits; and it was adorned after a most costly manner, as having much richer and thicker plates of silver and gold upon them than the other. These nine gates had that silver and gold poured upon them by Alexander, the father of Tiberius. Now there were fifteen steps, which led away from the wall of the court of the women to this greater gate; whereas those that led thither from the other gates were five steps shorter.

4. As to the holy house itself, which was placed in the midst [of the inmost court], that most sacred part of the temple, it was ascended to by twelve steps; and in front its height and its breadth were equal, and each a hundred cubits, though it was behind forty cubits narrower; for on its front it had what may be styled shoulders on each side, that passed twenty cubits further. Its first gate was seventy cubits high, and twenty-five cubits broad; but this gate had no doors; for it represented the universal visibility of heaven, and that it cannot be excluded from any place. Its front was covered with gold all over, and through it the first part of the house, that was more inward, did all of it appear; which, as it was very large, so did all the parts about the more inward gate appear to shine to those that saw them; but then, as the entire house was divided into two parts within, it was only the first part of it that was open to our view. Its height extended all along to ninety cubits in height, and its length was fifty cubits, and its breadth twenty. But that gate which was at this end of the first part of the house was, as we have already observed, all over covered with gold, as was its whole wall about it; it had also golden vines above it, from which clusters of grapes hung as tall as a man's height. But then this house, as it was divided into two parts, the inner part was lower than the appearance of the outer, and had golden doors of fifty-five cubits altitude, and sixteen in breadth; but before these doors there was a veil of equal largeness with the doors. It was a Babylonian curtain, embroidered with blue, and fine linen, and scarlet, and purple, and of a contexture that was truly wonderful. Nor was this mixture of colors without its mystical interpretation, but was a kind of image of the universe; for by the scarlet there seemed to be enigmatically signified fire, by the fine flax the earth, by the blue the air, and by the purple the sea; two of them having their colors the foundation of this resemblance; but the fine flax and the purple have their own origin for that foundation, the earth producing the one, and the sea the other. This curtain had also embroidered upon it all that was mystical in the heavens, excepting that of the [twelve] signs, representing living creatures.

5. When any persons entered into the temple, its floor received them. This part of the temple therefore was in height sixty cubits, and its length the same; whereas its breadth was but twenty cubits: but still that sixty cubits in length was divided again, and the first part of it was cut off at forty cubits, and had in it three things that were very wonderful and famous among all mankind, the candlestick, the table [of shew-bread], and the altar of incense. Now the seven lamps signified the seven planets; for so many there were springing out of the candlestick. Now the twelve loaves that were upon the table signified the circle of the zodiac and the year; but the altar of incense, by its thirteen kinds of sweet-smelling spices with which the sea replenished it, signified that God is the possessor of all things that are both in the uninhabitable and habitable parts of the earth, and that they are all to be dedicated to his use. But the inmost part of the temple of all was of twenty cubits. This was also separated from the outer part by a veil. In this there was nothing at all. It was inaccessible and inviolable, and not to be seen by any; and was called the Holy of Holies. Now, about the sides of the lower part of the temple, there were little houses, with passages out of one into another; there were a great many of them, and they were of three stories high; there were also entrances on each side into them from the gate of the temple. But the superior part of the temple had no such little houses any further, because the temple was there narrower, and forty cubits higher, and of a smaller body than the lower parts of it. Thus we collect that the whole height, including the sixty cubits from the floor, amounted to a hundred cubits.

6. Now the outward face of the temple in its front wanted nothing that was likely to surprise either men's minds or their eyes; for it was covered all over with plates of gold of great weight, and, at the first rising of the sun, reflected back a very fiery splendor, and made those who forced themselves to look upon it to turn their eyes away, just as they would have done at the sun's own rays. But this temple appeared to strangers, when they were coming to it at a distance, like a mountain covered with snow; for as to those parts of it that were not gilt, they were exceeding white. On its top it had spikes with sharp points, to prevent any pollution of it by birds sitting upon it. Of its stones, some of them were forty-five cubits in length, five in height, and six in breadth. Before this temple stood the altar, fifteen cubits high, and equal both in length and breadth; each of which dimensions was fifty cubits. The figure it was built in was a square, and it had corners like horns; and the passage up to it was by an insensible acclivity. It was formed without any iron tool, nor did any such iron tool so much as touch it at any time. There was also a wall of partition, about a cubit in height, made of fine stones, and so as to be grateful to the sight; this encompassed the holy house and the altar, and kept the people that were on the outside off from the priests. Moreover, those that had the gonorrhea and the leprosy were excluded out of the city entirely; women also, when their courses were upon them, were shut out of the temple; nor when they were free from that impurity, were they allowed to go beyond the limit before-mentioned; men also, that were not thoroughly pure, were prohibited to come into the inner [court of the] temple; nay, the priests themselves that were not pure were prohibited to come into it also.

7. Now all those of the stock of the priests that could not minister by reason of some defect in their bodies, came within the partition, together with those that had no such imperfection, and had their share with them by reason of their stock, but still made use of none except their own private garments; for nobody but he that officiated had on his sacred garments; but then those priests that were without any blemish upon them went up to the altar clothed in fine linen. They abstained chiefly from wine, out of this fear, lest otherwise they should transgress some rules of their ministration. The high priest did also go up with them; not always indeed, but on the seventh days and new moons, and if any festivals belonging to our nation, which we celebrate every year, happened. When he officiated, he had on a pair of breeches that reached beneath his privy parts to his thighs, and had on an inner garment of linen, together with a blue garment, round, without seam, with fringe work, and reaching to the feet. There were also golden bells that hung upon the fringes, and pomegranates intermixed among them. The bells signified thunder, and the pomegranates lightning. But that girdle that tied the garment to the breast was embroidered with five rows of various colors, of gold, and purple, and scarlet, as also of fine linen and blue, with which colors we told you before the veils of the temple were embroidered also. The like embroidery was upon the ephod; but the quantity of gold therein was greater. Its figure was that of a stomacher for the breast. There were upon it two golden buttons like small shields, which buttoned the ephod to the garment; in these buttons were enclosed two very large and very excellent sardonyxes, having the names of the tribes of that nation engraved upon them: on the other part there hung twelve stones, three in a row one way, and four in the other; a sardius, a topaz, and an emerald; a carbuncle, a jasper, and a sapphire; an agate, an amethyst, and a ligure; an onyx, a beryl, and a chrysolite; upon every one of which was again engraved one of the forementioned names of the tribes. A mitre also of fine linen encompassed his head, which was tied by a blue ribbon, about which there was another golden crown, in which was engraven the sacred name [of God]: it consists of four vowels. However, the high priest did not wear these garments at other times, but a more plain habit; he only did it when he went into the most sacred part of the temple, which he did but once in a year, on that day when our custom is for all of us to keep a fast to God. And thus much concerning the city and the temple; but for the customs and laws hereto relating, we shall speak more accurately another time; for there remain a great many things thereto relating which have not been here touched upon.

8. Now as to the tower of Antonia, it was situated at the corner of two cloisters of the court of the temple; of that on the west, and that on the north; it was erected upon a rock of fifty cubits in height, and was on a great precipice; it was the work of king Herod, wherein he demonstrated his natural magnanimity. In the first place, the rock itself was covered over with smooth pieces of stone, from its foundation, both for ornament, and that any one who would either try to get up or to go down it might not be able to hold his feet upon it. Next to this, and before you come to the edifice of the tower itself, there was a wall three cubits high; but within that wall all the space of the tower of Antonia itself was built upon, to the height of forty cubits. The inward parts had the largeness and form of a palace, it being parted into all kinds of rooms and other conveniences, such as courts, and places for bathing, and broad spaces for camps; insomuch that, by having all conveniences that cities wanted, it might seem to be composed of several cities, but by its magnificence it seemed a palace. And as the entire structure resembled that of a tower, it contained also four other distinct towers at its four corners; whereof the others were but fifty cubits high; whereas that which lay upon the southeast corner was seventy cubits high, that from thence the whole temple might be viewed; but on the corner where it joined to the two cloisters of the temple, it had passages down to them both, through which the guard (for there always lay in this tower a Roman legion) went several ways among the cloisters, with their arms, on the Jewish festivals, in order to watch the people, that they might not there attempt to make any innovations; for the temple was a fortress that guarded the city, as was the tower of Antonia a guard to the temple; and in that tower were the guards of those three14. There was also a peculiar fortress belonging to the upper city, which was Herod's palace; but for the hill Bezetha, it was divided from the tower Antonia, as we have already told you; and as that hill on which the tower of Antonia stood was the highest of these three, so did it adjoin to the new city, and was the only place that hindered the sight of the temple on the north. And this shall suffice at present to have spoken about the city and the walls about it, because I have proposed to myself to make a more accurate description of it elsewhere.

Footnotes

12 See the description of the temples hereto belonging, ch. 15. But note, that what Josephus here says of the original scantiness of this Mount Moriah, that it was quite too little for the temple, and that at first it held only one cloister or court of Solomon's building, and that the foundations were forced to be added long afterwards by degrees, to render it capable of the cloisters for the other courts, etc., is without all foundation in the Scriptures, and not at all confirmed by his exacter account in the Antiquities. All that is or can be true here is this, that when the court of the Gentiles was long afterward to be encompassed with cloisters, the southern foundation for these cloisters was found not to be large or firm enough, and was raised, and that additional foundation supported by great pillars and arches under ground, which Josephus speaks of elsewhere, Antiq. B. XV. ch. 11. sect. 3, and which Mr. Maundrel saw, and describes, p. 100, as extant under ground at this day.

13 What Josephus seems here to mean is this: that these pillars, supporting the cloisters in the second court, had their foundations or lowest parts as deep as the floor of the first or lowest court; but that so far of those lowest parts as were equal to the elevation of the upper floor above the lowest were, and must be, hidden on the inside by the ground or rock itself, on which that upper court was built; so that forty cubits visible below were reduced to twenty-five visible above, and implies the difference of their heights to be fifteen cubits. The main difficulty lies here, how fourteen or fifteen steps should give an ascent of fifteen cubits, half a cubit seeming sufficient for a single step. Possibly there were fourteen or fifteen steps at the partition wall, and fourteen or fifteen more thence into the court itself, which would bring the whole near to the just proportion. See sect. 3, infra. But I determine nothing.

14 These three guards that lay in the tower of Antonia must be those that guarded the city, the temple, and the tower of Antonia.

Caveat

To get a firm understanding of the site effects on the Temple Mount Platform, one would need to create a seismic model with measured shear wave velocities of the various components of the Temple Mount/Fill/Bedrock structure. What is discussed above is an elaborate version of a back of an envelope calculation.

Rolling Stone

Rolling Stone Calculation

Rolling Stone
Rolling Stone from Second Temple Period
When the author of Matthew reports a second earthquake in Chapter 28, he mentions that a Blocking or Rolling Stone was jarred open; revealing an empty tomb . The relevant passage is repeated below.
1 After the Sabbath, at dawn on the first day of the week, Mary Magdalene and the other Mary went to look at the tomb. 2 There was a violent earthquake, for an angel of the Lord came down from heaven and, going to the tomb, rolled back the stone and sat on it.
A force balance calculation can be made to determine the minimum peak horizontal ground acceleration required to move the stone. At equilibrium conditions the disturbing force FH is balanced by the resisting force FR. When FH exceeds FR, the Rolling Stone will begin to move. A diagram and the calculation is shown below.
Force Balance for Rolling Stone

Force Balance for Rolling Stone

Therefore, the force required to roll the Rolling Stone can be expressed in units of gravitation force (g) and is equal to the coefficient of friction (μ) operating at the area of contact between the rolling stone and the floor. One can approximate this coefficient by taking the value of the coefficient of rolling friction of limestone on limestone which is approximately equal to 0.25. Thus, a minimum of ~0.25 g of force was required to initiate rolling of the Rolling Stone. This calculation does not consider a site effect and possible seismic amplification at Golgotha (Church of the Holy Sepulchre). Peak horizontal ground acceleration of 0.25 g is somewhat higher than what would be predicted for intensity of shaking in Jerusalem based on Williams (2004) estimate of the magnitude and epicenter of the Jerusalem Quake.

Fiaschi, A., et al. (2012) did not observe a site effect inside the Church of the Holy Sepulchre when they did a microtremor analysis there in 2007 and 2008. Amos Salamon (personal correspondence with N. Ambraseys, 2005) relates that one should "not expect to have a site effect in this place due to lithology or topography, or any other type of seismogenic effect (e.g. slope failure, liquefaction etc.)" and that the "the continuous seismic damage [observed in the] history in this place [Church of the Holy Sepulchre] is due to poor construction and lack of anti-seismic engineering consideration, and not because of natural seismic hazards (except the ‘regular’ seismic waves)." In 2004, Salamon observed that a crack in one of the outer walls of the Church which was enlarged by the NE Dead Sea Quake of 2004 (ML = 5.2). Photos of this crack can be observed in a long shot, medium shot, and a closeup (Courtesy A. Salamon).

According to a Geological Map of Jerusalem and Vicinity (GSI 1976), the Church of the Holy Sepulchre is located on the Bina formation - a Turonian Limestone and sometimes Dolomite. Although an anthropogenic alluvium composed of accumulated archaeologic rubble is present under the foundations of a number of structures in the Old City, the history of the construction of the church (Helena having workers excavate down to bedrock to find the tombs) and the bedrock that can be observed in various parts of the interior of the church suggests significant amounts of artificial alluvium are not present underneath the structure itself and, more importantly for this discussion, would not have been present underneath any rock cut tomb. Thus, although there are signs that the Church itself is seismically weak as are buildings in the vicinity1, there is no indication that a site effect would have been present at this site when the Passion Account is alleged to have occurred.
Footnotes

1 Zohar et al (2014) used historical photographs to identify a number of metal anchors which they suggest had been used to shore up buildings near the Jaffa Gate that were weakened after the 1927 Jericho Quake. These buildings are in close proximity to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.

Notes

Paleoclimate - Droughts

Date (with hotlink) Notes
40/41 CE
44-48 CE
Date (with hotlink) Notes
40/41 CE

A one year drought is recorded by Josephus in 40 and/or 41 CE

When Petronius had said this, and had dismissed rite assembly of the Jews, he desired the principal of them to take care of their husbandry, and to speak kindly to the people, and encourage them to have good hope of their affairs. Thus did he readily bring the multitude to be cheerful again. And now did God show his presence to Petronius, and signify to him that he would afford him his assistance in his whole design; for he had no sooner finished the speech that he made to the Jews, but God sent down great showers of rain, contrary to human expectation; (33) for that day was a clear day, and gave no sign, by the appearance of the sky, of any rain; nay, the whole year had been subject to a great drought, and made men despair of any water from above, even when at any time they saw the heavens overcast with clouds; insomuch that when such a great quantity of rain came, and that in an unusual manner, and without any other expectation of it, the Jews hoped that Petronius would by no means fail in his petition for them.
The backdrop for this drought is that it occurred when Roman emperor Caligula (aka Gaius) attempted to have a statue of himself installed inside the second Temple of Jerusalem in 40 CE prompting a crisis in Judea. Caligula ordered Petronius, the Governor of Syria to install the statue but Petronius delayed implementation rightfully fearing it would lead to an insurrection. The crisis ended when Caligula was assassinated in 41 CE. This dates this drought to 40/41 CE.

44-48 CE

In his book Antiquities of the Jews, Josephus relates that a famine occurred Judea in the mid 40’s CE – perhaps 44 CE – 48 CE. In two separate passages in Book XX ,he describes this famine. In Chapter 2 Paragraph 5, he states :

5. But as to Helena, the king's mother, when she saw that the affairs of Izates's kingdom were in peace, and that her son was a happy man, and admired among all men, and even among foreigners, by the means of God's providence over him, she had a mind to go to the city of Jerusalem, in order to worship at that temple of God which was so very famous among all men, and to offer her thank-offerings there. So she desired her son to give her leave to go thither; upon which he gave his consent to what she desired very willingly, and made great preparations for her dismission, and gave her a great deal of money, and she went down to the city Jerusalem, her son conducting her on her journey a great way. Now her coming was of very great advantage to the people of Jerusalem; for whereas a famine did oppress them at that time, and many people died for want of what was necessary to procure food withal, queen Helena sent some of her servants to Alexandria with money to buy a great quantity of corn, and others of them to Cyprus, to bring a cargo of dried figs.
In Chapter 5 Paragraph 2 he reiterates :
2. Then came Tiberius Alexander as successor to Fadus; he was the son of Alexander the alabarch of Alexandria, which Alexander was a principal person among all his contemporaries, both for his family and wealth: he was also more eminent for his piety than this his son Alexander, for he did not continue in the religion of his country. Under these procurators that great famine happened in Judea, in which queen Helena bought corn in Egypt at a great expense, and distributed it to those that were in want, as I have related already.
The date of the famine can determined by the rule of Cuspius Fadus and his successor Tiberius Alexander as Procurators of Judea. Cuspius Fadus was sent to Judea upon the death of King Herod Agrippa in 44 CE. He was succeeded by Tiberius Alexander who was in turn replaced by Cumanus in 48 CE. This indicates a famine of up to 4 years between 44 and 48 CE. This is likely the same famine referred to in Chapter 11 of the Acts of the Apostles which is referred to below as a dearth and includes the possible hyperbole that it affected the whole world.
28 And there stood up one of them named Agabus, and signified by the Spirit that there should be great dearth throughout all the world: which came to pass in the days of Claudius Caesar.
Historical sources for this famine are discussed in detail in Graham (2021)

References

References

Graham, D. (2020) The Earthquakes of the Crucifixion and Resurrection of Jesus Christ themelios 45(3) - well researched but overstates some evidence